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comments, ephemera, speculation, etc. (protected political speech and personal opinion) 2020- 2020-03-28 b Viral News - Sly With Statistics On a
per-capita basis, we shouldn’t be panicking
Every country has a
different population size which skews aggregate
and cumulative case comparisons. By controlling
for population, you can properly weigh the
number of cases in the context of the local
population size. Viruses don’t acknowledge our
human borders. The US population is 5.5X greater
than Italy, 6X larger than South Korea, and 25%
the size of China. Comparing the US total number
of cases in absolute terms is rather silly.
Rank ordering based on the total number of cases shows that the US on a per-capita basis is significantly lower than the top six nations by case volume. On a 1 million citizen per-capita basis, the US moves to above mid-pack of all countries and rising, with similar case volume as Singapore (385 cases), Cyprus (75 cases), and United Kingdom(3,983 cases). This is data as of March 20th, 2020. ... COVID-19 is spreading, but probably not accelerating Growth rates are tricky to track over time. Smaller numbers are easy to move than larger numbers. As an example, GDP growth of 3% for the US means billions of dollars while 3% for Bermuda means millions. Generally, growth rates decline over time, but the nominal increase may still be significant. This holds true of daily confirmed case increases. Daily growth rates declined over time across all countries regardless of particular policy solutions, such as shutting the borders or social distancing. ... Cases globally are increasing (it is a virus after all!), but beware of believing metrics designed to intentionally scare like “cases doubling”. These are typically small numbers over small numbers and sliced on a per-country basis. Globally, COVID-19’s growth rate is rather steady. Remember, viruses ignore our national boundaries. Viruses though don’t grow infinitely forever and forever. As with most things in nature, viruses follow a common pattern — a bell curve. Additionally, for some perspective, please read how Swine Flu cases were overestimated: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/swine-flu-cases-overestimated/ ______________________ Permission is hereby granted to any and all to copy and paste any entry on this page and convey it electronically along with its URL, ______________________ |
...
News and facts for
those sick and tired of the National Propaganda Radio
version of reality.
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