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2020-

2020-04-15 e
Viral News - Herd Immunity Likely Developing Despite Government Over-Reaction

California has 10 times more coronavirus cases than reported -
and HALF of all New Yorkers are infected, pair of scientists claim

•A new model suggests 4.8% of the total US population was infected with the novel coronavirus by April 6 - 40 times the number of confirmed cases
•In that model, researchers estimate California has 10 times more cases than have been reported and that half of all New Yorkers are infected
•The team believes a group of asymptomatic and untested virus carriers are infecting others
•But both states' governors insists they are 'flattening the curve' and local health experts say the model is based on incomplete data
•In the US, there are currently 633,000 confirmed cases of the virus and more than 27,000 deaths

A pair of scientists believe that up to 270,000 residents of California have the novel coronavirus, 10 times more cases than have been reported.

The researchers estimate that up to 4.8 percent of the total US population was infected with the virus by April 6 - 40 times the number of confirmed cases.

They also suggest that almost 50 percent of New Yorkers, which comes out to around nine million people, are likely infected, reported the San Francisco Chronicle.

If true, the study would uphold the belief by some in the medical community that a group of asymptomatic and untested carriers are infecting others.

Lest you think these projections are farfetched, from the San Francisco Chronicle story cited above:

But the projections aren’t completely out of line with previous studies, including one in the academic journal Science last month that estimated 86% of all infections were undocumented. Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch told the Atlantic in February that 40% to 70% of people worldwide could be infected within the year.
...
“The estimated value in New York is so high that it is likely close to herd immunity,” Thorpe and Lyberger wrote in the report, referring to the level at which so many people are infected that the spread slows because so many people are immune.

No other state is close to herd immunity, the study said.

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