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2021-

2021-06-29 f
BROWNING & SHIFTING POPULATION
(not Brownian motion)

Forecasting Ethnic Compositions in All Countries

Published: 2021/06/01

Abstract

Migration has significantly altered the ethnic compositions of many countries and will likely continue to do so in the future. What will these ethnic compositions be? This paper attempts to answer this question for all countries and all years up to 2100 under plausible assumptions of migration rates and natural growth rate differentials. I find that Western Europe and North America will experience the greatest degree of change while the ethnic compositions of Asia, Africa, and Latin America remain relatively constant. In Western Europe, the European-origin population share declines from 90% today to 45% by 2100 assuming present migration rates, but with no further migration this share will be 74%. In North America, the European share drops from 62% to 34%, but with no further migration this will be 54%. Without migration, Europeans retain a majority in all European and North American countries, but with continued migration this is not the case. (read more)

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