Let's examine the evidence around the strike on the Gaza Baptist Hospital and see where it takes us.

Evidence pointing towards Israeli responsibility:
- Israeli aircraft filmed dropping flares and banking away immediately prior to "arrival"
- "Arrival" similar to other known JDAM strikes - Single, large blast recorded with no secondaries
- Munition precisely struck the center of the hospital parking lot, suggesting it was targeted
- Munition apparently airburst, suggesting a proximity fuze was used
- JDAMs have a proximity fuze setting; to my knowledge Qassam rockets do not
- Israeli officials had demanded the hospital be evacuated
- Israel had conducted strikes near the hospital previously
- Israeli officials initially claimed responsibility
- Israel subsequently released obviously fake material pointing to PIJ responsibility
- The Pentagon only backed Israeli claims (with obvious reluctance) a full day later
- The Israeli military has been caught lying on many occasions previously
- Israeli cutouts pushing an inconsistent alternate defense casting doubt on the number of casualties and extent of damage ("we didn't do it, but even if we did it wasn't as bad as claimed")

Evidence pointing to Palestinian responsibility
- Some Grad-type rockets were launched nearby around the same time
- Hamas and PIJ are terrorist groups that have probably done false flag attacks in the past
- The backlash to this benefited Hamas immensely

So obviously Israel was responsible. In fact some of the "evidence" hastily forwarded to absolve them of responsibility, such as the lack of an obvious crater, is damning to them given that false-flag car bombs or enormous malfunctioning PIJ rocket warheads would in fact leave a substantial one by exploding in contact with the ground.

Officially the authorities in Gaza are now claiming some 471 dead and 800 total casualties; there's dozens of casualties on video from the courtyard area alone. I don't find this particularly implausible - the hospital was a safe haven in a war zone, packed with refugees and likely overflowing with critically wounded patients who would have been very susceptible to dying of wounds in the aftermath. Perhaps Hamas officials added in the existing residents of the morgue to bump up the numbers. Regardless, this was an atrocity.

— Armchair Warlord (@ArmchairW) October 18, 2023